HR Lab · 2026-08-29
Home run model
247 bats · 17 games · 28.2 xHR · 26 lineups · 134 platoon edges
Top HR environments
park · weather · starter
- 1
BOS at NYY
6.3env2.2 xHR7:15 PM · Yankee Stadium · 114 park · HR PARK · 12 PLATOON EDGES - 2
COL at ATL
5.3env2.3 xHR4:10 PM · Truist Park · 103 park · 9 PLATOON EDGES - 3
CIN at CHC
5.2env2.8 xHR2:20 PM · Wrigley Field · 101 park · 9 PLATOON EDGES - 4
TEX at MIL
5.2env2.2 xHR7:15 PM · American Family Field · 103 park · 12 PLATOON EDGES - 5
CWS at MIN
4.9env2.4 xHR2:10 PM · Target Field · 98 park · 7 PLATOON EDGES - 6BOS at NYY4.8env0 xHR1:05 PM · Yankee Stadium · 114 park · HR PARK
Daily HR model · ranks 1–10
Top 20 HR projections
Savant 3-yr PF · continuous HR/9 · platoon gate
vs TBDR✓ PlatoonPF 1.03
71- ISO
- 0.293
- xISO
- 0.242
- Barrel%
- 16.7%
- HH%
- 45.7%
- Avg EV
- 90.4
vs TBDR✓ PlatoonPF 1.14
70- ISO
- 0.240
- xISO
- 0.233
- Barrel%
- 13.7%
- HH%
- 44.0%
- Avg EV
- 89.8
vs Andrew Abbott (1.27 HR/9)R✓ PlatoonPF 1.01
66- ISO
- 0.165
- xISO
- 0.126
- Barrel%
- 5.1%
- HH%
- 37.2%
- Avg EV
- 88.1
vs TBDL✓ PlatoonPF 1.02
66- ISO
- 0.286
- xISO
- 0.263
- Barrel%
- 17.6%
- HH%
- 51.0%
- Avg EV
- 92.7
vs José Soriano (0.86 HR/9)SPF 1.04
65- ISO
- —
- xISO
- 0.202
- Barrel%
- 14.1%
- HH%
- 37.4%
- Avg EV
- 89.6
vs TBDLPF 1.14
64- ISO
- 0.275
- xISO
- 0.247
- Barrel%
- 15.2%
- HH%
- 48.7%
- Avg EV
- 92.2
vs TBDSPF 0.98
64- ISO
- 0.193
- xISO
- 0.117
- Barrel%
- 4.0%
- HH%
- 33.2%
- Avg EV
- 88.0
vs TBDL✓ PlatoonPF 0.98
63- ISO
- —
- xISO
- 0.134
- Barrel%
- 5.8%
- HH%
- 32.3%
- Avg EV
- 87.4
vs TBDL✓ PlatoonPF 0.94
63- ISO
- —
- xISO
- 0.244
- Barrel%
- 18.1%
- HH%
- 58.3%
- Avg EV
- 95.9
vs TBDR✓ PlatoonPF 1.03
62- ISO
- 0.193
- xISO
- 0.186
- Barrel%
- 12.0%
- HH%
- 47.4%
- Avg EV
- 90.2
3-leg HR parlay
+EV✓ STRONG- 1
28%
+252 HR
+23.1% edge
- 2
30%
+233 HR
+10.2% edge
- 3
24%
+311 HR
+11.2% edge
HR pitcher targets
HR/9 · vs L/R · barrel · hard hit · fly ball · park
HR/9 ≥ 1.48 = target · ≥ 1.00 = lean · below = avoid. Park is the venue HR factor (≥ 1.04 boosts, ≤ 0.97 suppresses).
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